000 AXNT20 KNHC 022341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 02 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA AT 5N9W TO 3N20W TO THE EQUATOR AT 27W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-2S BETWEEN 10W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1S-6S BETWEEN 31W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 30N IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE-S RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A 1004 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAIL OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF ENHANCING THE FAIR WEATHER. FURTHER N... CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUD ARE INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES. EXPECT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE GULF EXPERIENCES MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 87W-92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...SHOWERS TO DOT THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 35N53W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS MOVING W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 26N60W 15N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N37W TO 27N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N52W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 33W-45W. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. $$ FORMOSA