000 AXNT20 KNHC 231752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU APR 23 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W TO 1S40W AND INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 18W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 32W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W...IS SHIFTING E. ACCORDING TO AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS AROUND 1120 UTC...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF WHILE SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT OVER THE WRN WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE S CENTRAL PLAINS. E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF TONIGHT AND FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE SE CONUS COAST IN THE W ATLC. DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. OF NOTE HOWEVER ARE HAZY CONDITIONS OBSERVED ACROSS THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE AS SMOKE IS ADVECTING N-NW FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SRN MEXICO. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 81W. LOW-LEVEL LIFT FROM SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE OF THE ELY TRADES AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY FACTORS FUELING THE CONVECTION. SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS SPREADING MOISTURE NE THOUGH IT APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MORE DENSE CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF THE ISLAND IN THE W ATLC AND LIKELY ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW. TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND MAINLY 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE W ATLC GRADUALLY REINFORCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N64W TO 24N69W THEN STATIONARY TO NORTHWEST HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG SWLY UPPER FLOW AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALONG THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. FARTHER TO THE W...A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST E OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA IS DRIFTING E... BRINGING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. OVER THE E CENTRAL ATLC...DEEP LAYER TROUGHING REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 33W-39W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED OVER THIS AREA IS CAUSING STRONG NE 20-30 KT FLOW WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AN UPPER JET EXTENDING NE FROM 13N37W TO N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE JET AXIS. $$ HUFFMAN