000
AXNT20 KNHC 161047
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC. 

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 5N6W AT THE COAST OF THE IVORY COAST...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 12W TO 2S20W 3S30W...AND GOING INTO NORTHEASTERN 
BRAZIL NEAR 4S41W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 2W AND 50W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAINST THE AFRICA COAST TO THE
NORTH OF 4N TO THE EAST OF 1W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 88W/89W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. WEAK 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 22N97W TO 
18N96W ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST. BROAD AND WEAK REMNANT 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TAIL END 
OF THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO 23.5N90W IN 
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM NICARAGUA
TO BELIZE...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 30N73W TO THE WATERS JUST TO 
GREAT ABACO ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 24N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 26N76W 29N70W BEYOND 32N63W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N 
BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. THE AREA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 
53W IS COVERED BY BROAD AND INDISTINCT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 26N29W. BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N60W 11N45W 20N30W BEYOND 
THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH REACHES MOROCCO ALONG 30N TO THE EAST OF 
20W.

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MT