000 AXNT20 KNHC 110531 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 2N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W AND EXTENDING INTO E BRAZIL NEAR 6S36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 12W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS...S LOUISIANA CONTINUING SW ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST N OF CORPUS CHRISTI THEN W ACROSS N MEXICO. WHILE A LACK OF PRECIPITATION IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF...IT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD OVER THE FAR N GULF WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS AND THEN BEGIN TO STALL. TO THE E OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS E OF 90W. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO E OF THE FRONT N OF THE REGION ACROSS SW ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 96W IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH W TO NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE APEX OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NW WATERS N OF 25N W OF 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM S OF HAITI TO THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR E PANAMA. THE NATURAL FLOW INT HE SW CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THIS REMNANT TROUGH IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-83W. ANY ACTIVITY IS SHALLOW IN NATURE CAPPED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. E TO SE WINDS NEAR 15-20 KT ARE BLOWING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER ERN MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE E-NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE USUAL ENHANCED ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THESE SURFACE WIND PATTERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO FLATTEN PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A WEAKENING COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FROM 32N52W TO 27N60W. ONLY BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LINGERING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO AND IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 25N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 66W-73W. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE W ATLC BESIDES FOR SWLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT N OF 30N W OF 75W ENHANCED BY THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE E CONUS. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 25N33W. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND THE ENTIRE E ATLC...A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE AZORES PROVIDING NE TO ELY SURFACE FLOW AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. $$ WALLACE