000 AXNT20 KNHC 102356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W AND EXTENDING TO 2S30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 15W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 1N BETWEEN 28W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND SW LOUISIANA CONTINUING SW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED ACROSS NE LOUISIANA ENTERING THE GULF NEAR 29N91W TO 29N93W. WHILE A LACK OF PRECIPITATION IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF...IT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NRN GULF WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY EARLY SATURDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO AND BEGIN TO STALL. TO THE E OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 95W IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH W-NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS FLOW IS BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE APEX OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NW WATERS N OF 25N W OF 93W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES WWD NEAR 10 KT CENTERED ALONG 72W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER OF THE TROUGH AXIS. PATCHY CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SHALLOW IN NATURE CAPPED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. E TO SE WINDS NEAR 15-20 KT ARE BLOWING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER ERN MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE E-NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE USUAL ENHANCED ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THESE SURFACE WIND PATTERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS FLATTENING PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N55W TO 26N61W. ONLY BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LINGERING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N67W W OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND A FEW PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 26N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 69W-75W. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE W ATLC BESIDES FOR SWLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT N OF 30N W OF 75W ENHANCED BY THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE ERN CONUS. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N31W IS PRODUCING MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC...A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF THE AZORES IS PROVIDING NE TO ELY SURFACE FLOW AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. $$ HUFFMAN