000 AXNT20 KNHC 101049 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W AND EXTENDING TO 2S32W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS W OF 19W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SFC HIGH PRES HAS SHIFTED E OF THE AREA INTO THE W ATLC. THIS HAS ALLOWED SLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ADVECTING A MILDER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS THAN WHAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS WEEK. LATEST SFC OBS AND QSCAT DATA SHOW THE STRONGEST FLOW...20-25 KT...OVER THE MIDDLE AND WEST WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING EXTENDING S INTO MEXICO. NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY DENSE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND FOG OVER THE NW COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER E TEXAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE FAR N WATERS TODAY AND SAT BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...STRONG WLY FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NE WATERS IN A SLIGHT DIFFLUENT ZONE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT CENTERED ALONG 68W N OF 13N. LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GUADELOUPE REPORTED 1.22 INCHES OF RAIN MAINLY TIED TO THIS TROUGH. PATCHY CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SHALLOW IN NATURE CAPPED BY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. E TO SE WINDS NEAR 20 KT ARE BLOWING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER S MEXICO AND HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE USUAL ENHANCED ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THESE WIND FLOWS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS FLATTENING PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N57W TO 25N65W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. ONLY BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES TO LOSE UPPER SUPPORT. A WEAK SFC RIDGE IS BUILDING E OVER THE W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 28N69W. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE W ATLC BESIDES FOR SW 20 KT WINDS NEAR BERMUDA ENHANCED BY LOW PRES N OF THE AREA. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N33W IS PRODUCING MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. A SW TO W UPPER JET WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 100 KT ORIGINATES JUST E OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 9N35W TO 17N25W TO 25N15 GENERATING AND ADVECTING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE JET AXIS. $$ CANGIALOSI