000 AXNT20 KNHC 081032 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED APR 08 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N18W 2N26W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W AND EXTENDING TO 1S40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N E OF 4W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 14W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF 4N BETWEEN 23W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAKENING 1023 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 25N92W WITH A SECONDARY CENTER LOCATED OVER SRN MEXICO. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES REVEAL DIMINISHING NW 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR ERN WATERS...DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT E OF THE AREA. SEAS HAVE BEEN STEADILY SUBSIDING BUT STILL REMAIN ELEVATED UP TO 8 FT OVER THE ERN WATERS. THE COOL AIRMASS IS BEING MODIFIED OVER THE W GULF AS SLY RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP. THIS PROCESS WILL SPREAD E THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A WLY JET WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 110 KT OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE REGION IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS S OF 22N. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE W COAST OF THE U.S. WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW DRAGGING A FRONT NEAR THE FAR NW WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL DEFINED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. BROKEN LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITHIN 90 NM. N-NW 20 KT WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT. E OF THE BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FAIR ENHANCED BY WIDESPREAD STABLE AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. TRADE WINDS ARE FAIRLY RELAXED DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE TROUGHING N AND W OF THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...FROM 32N65W TO E CUBA...AND AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 62W-67W. WINDS REMAIN STRONG ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BOUNDARY AND BASED ON AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS ARE STRONGEST IN THE COLD SECTOR NEAR THE N BORDER. FARTHER E... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 42W-47W ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY NEAR AN UPPER LOW. THIS UPPER FEATURE DOES HAVE A SFC CONNECTION ANALYZED AS A TROUGH FROM 28N44W TO 20N48W. THE FLOW ALOFT IS MAINLY ZONAL ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE TROPICS...A SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN AFRICA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. A 100+ KT SW TO W JET EXTENDS FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N61W TO 19N40W TO 24N16W GENERATING AND ADVECTING A SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE JET AXIS. $$ CANGIALOSI