000 AXNT20 KNHC 061742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 06 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N14W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W AND EXTENDING TO 3S30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 3N BETWEEN 14W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SRN MEXICO ALONG 30N84W 25N88W 19N92W. STRONG NLY WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A 1036 MB HIGH BUILDING S FROM THE U.S. INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS AROUND 1200 UTC SHOWED WINDS TO BE UP TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WRN GULF WATERS. THESE WINDS HAVE ELEVATED SEAS TO 10 FT ACROSS THE NW GULF BUOYS AND LIKELY A FEW FT HIGHER OVER THE SW GULF WHERE THE FETCH IS GREATER AND WINDS ARE LIKELY STRONGER. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AS WIDESPREAD STABILITY IS OBSERVED IN THE MID-LEVELS... HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING SW FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION AREA INTO THE FAR E/CENTRAL GULF. THE AIR IS SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AND DRIER W OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE 50'S/60'S F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40'S F OVER THE NRN GULF COAST (COMPARED WITH 70'S/80'S F TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ABOVE 70 F OVER MUCH OF THE SE GULF AND SRN FLORIDA). THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY W CENTERED ALONG 68W N OF 14N. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-70W. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ENHANCED BY VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THE RESULT OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC AND TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. RECENT QSCAT DATA AND SURFACE OBS DEPICT LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LOOKING AHEAD...THE WEAK TROUGH MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W-NW MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA...WHILE A STRONG FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN MONDAY EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS ERN NORTH CAROLINA...THE W ATLC WATERS N OF 29N AND THE NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH AND A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N58W TO 30N61W CONTINUING SW AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 25N69W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 31N BETWEEN 57W-61W. FARTHER E...A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N31W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE S OVER THE E ATLC. STRONG NELY WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT ARE ACROSS THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 25W. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS...THE MAIN FEATURE IS A LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 10N20W. ONLY ASSOCIATED EFFECTS EXIST ON ITS WRN PERIPHERY WHERE UPPER SLY FLOW AND AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS GENERATING AND SPREADING MOISTURE N FROM THE ITCZ S OF 14N BETWEEN 45W-57W. $$ HUFFMAN