000
AXNT20 KNHC 050537
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0500 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 22W THEN ALONG 3S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S39W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-6S BETWEEN 25W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
AND EAST GULF. AS OF 0300 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM FORT 
MYERS ALONG 27N85W TO NEAR 28N89W. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND 
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO 29N. THE FRONT 
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. FAIR CONDITIONS ARE 
PRESENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF DUE TO A STABLE 
ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS 
THE SW GULF. AT THE SFC...S TO SE FLOW 15-20 KT COVER THE REGION 
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL US 
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A STRONG COLD 
FRONT TO THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE 
RATHER QUICKLY...EXITING THE GULF MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM 
CANADA IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE 
FRONT...CREATING GALE CONDITIONS IN THE SW GULF MON.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 14N. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A SFC TROUGH ALONG 64W. THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED A FAIR 
AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE ISLANDS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS OF 0000 
UTC...THE ISLAND OF GUADELOUPE REPORTED A 24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL 
0.42 INCHES. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING WNW ABOUT 10 KT AND WILL 
LIKELY BRING MOISTURE ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY 
CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
DUE TO A STRONGLY SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. TRADE WINDS ARE 
GENERALLY E TO SE 15-20 KT...EXCEPT TO 25 KT OVER THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE WEST ATLC NEAR 31N66W AND EXTENDS ALONG 
28N70W TO 26N76W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS 
TO FLORIDA NEAR POMPANO BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND UP TO 170 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. 
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE 
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT. FURTHER EAST...A WEAK 1014 
MB LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 30N39W. AN ASSOCIATED SFC 
TROUGH IS ALONG 31N37W 26N39W TO 21N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. A NARROW SFC 
RIDGE MAINTAINS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS E OF 31W. IN THE TROPICS...A 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING MODERATE CONVECTION OVER 
NE SOUTH AMERICA AND THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 9N BETWEEN 40W-57W.


$$
WADDINGTON