000
AXNT20 KNHC 040503
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0430 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 23W THEN ALONG 2S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S38W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 27W AND THE COAST OF BRAZIL.   

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER IN THE SE GULF THIS 
MORNING. AS OF 0300 UTC...THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTH 
FLORIDA ENTERING THE GULF NEAR MARCO ISLAND AND CONTINUING TO 
NEAR 25N84W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 23N88W TO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER 
RADAR REVEAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHING 40 NM OF THE FRONT. THIS 
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE 
BECOMING DIFFUSE LATE SAT. A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  
THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT 
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SUNDAY. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT MID-UPPER DRY AIR BLANKETS THE CARIBBEAN. UPPER 
CONFLUENCE BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS 
CREATING A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND INHIBITING CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY. THE ONLY NOTABLE AREA OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 61W. SFC 
STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SHOWERS WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE 
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD 
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED 
IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...SLY 
WINDS 20-25 KT HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT IN THE SE 
GULF. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT 
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE W ATLC. AS OF 0300 UTC...THE COLD FRONT 
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N74W AND CONTINUES ALONG 
28N77W AND CROSSES FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 40 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 28N...AND WITHIN 80 NM N OF 28N. 
SW WINDS 20-25 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE 
LATE SUN. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE 
CENTRAL ATLC. THE SFC LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N42W. A SFC 
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER 
ALONG 25N45W TO NEAR 22N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED 
ALONG THE TROUGH. TRANQUIL WEATHER IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THESE TWO 
SYSTEMS. IN THE TROPICS...UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
WADDINGTON