000 AXNT20 KNHC 022347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU APR 02 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 14W CONTINUING ALONG 1S20W 2S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER LIBERIA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 7W-11W. ALSO...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 3N BETWEEN 31W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS SRN ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N94W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TAMPICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 60 NM. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT TO 86W UNDER 20-25 KT SLY SURFACE WIND FLOW. NW OF THE COLD FRONT...NLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW GULF...TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. ALSO OF NOTE...HAZE IS OBSERVED RESTRICTING VISIBILITY ALONG THE SRN MEXICO COAST AND WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SMOKE STREAMING N-NE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL GULF AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO WILDFIRES OVER SRN MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH FRESH EASTERLY TRADES OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. ABUNDANT DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION BEYOND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNDER MOSTLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF 75W WHILE SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WRN CUBA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC AND ORIGINATES FROM A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED WWD TO THE GEORGIA COAST AND IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE SE CONUS INCLUDING THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN GEORGIA AND NRN FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND INTO THE W ATLC WATERS N OF 30N AND REMAIN E OF 67W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE ERN CONUS AND PROVIDE INCREASED SLY WINDS OF UP TO 30 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N44W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N45W AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N43W 25N48W 22N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE E... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC WITH A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N20W. ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH...NE TO ELY SURFACE FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS OBSERVED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...DIVERGENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AN E-W AXIS ALONG 8N IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. $$ HUFFMAN