000
AXNT20 KNHC 020542
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 15W INTO 
NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-3N 
BETWEEN 15W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 0300 UTC WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE 
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO 26N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. A 110-120 KT 
JETSTREAM IS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THEN NW GULF TO 
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE 
AIR IS S OF 25N WITH FAIR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE 
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF UP TO 20 KT IS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND 
ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FRESH EASTERLY TRADES 
OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA SW TO NICARAGUA. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS 
PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION BEYOND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS 
AND ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 
HISPANIOLA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW ATLC FROM 32N72W TO CENTRAL 
CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH 
THE RIDGE N OF 27N. OVERCAST LOW TOP CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 32N50W TO 19N60W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT 
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N45W TO 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO 60W.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA E OF THE UPPER 
TOUGH AND FRONT.

$$
DGS