000
AXNT20 KNHC 011730
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 
21W...TO 3S30W...TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5S38W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-1S BETWEEN 
3W-12W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4S BETWEEN 
28W-44W.   

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 31N85W 26N90W 19N96W. A WEAK 1007 
MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE FRONT NEAR 22N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA FROM 
28N-31N BETWEEN 82W-85W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. WINDS ARE 15-20 KT ON BOTH SIDES 
OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW 
PREVAILS. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N 
OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT...THE 
SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE AND THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RESULTANT WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM N 
FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA WITH CONVECTION. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ALSO 
BE OVER INLAND S TEXAS MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF.    
     
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH VERY LITTLE 
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES 
E OF 62W...OVER HISPANIOLA...AND OVER E CUBA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
ALONG 80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. 
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N46W TO 26N60W 
26N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024 
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N17W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N45W. AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE 
E ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 15N E OF 30W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 
60W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 
20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO 
MOVE E TO 32N40W WITH SHOWERS IN 24 HOURS.   

$$
FORMOSA