000
AXNT20 KNHC 301044
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM NORTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 
18W...TO 2S30W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5S41W. SCATTERED 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N
BETWEEN 10W AND 25W...AND IN BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA FROM 3N
TO 5N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 6N EAST OF 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN CHANNEL...BECOMING STATIONARY AND 
CONTINUING TO 19N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE 
SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 88W. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE 
REST OF THE AREA AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 
29N88W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE 
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY.
     
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. 
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO COVERS THE AREA. BROKEN LOW 
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 65W...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 21N40W TO 17N50W.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 27N 
BETWEEN 29W AND 35W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS 
AROUND A RIDGE THAT IS IN BETWEEN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS 
BETWEEN THE 32N29W 17N50W COLD FRONT AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
COLD FRONT...AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N55W. 
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 21N29W TO 7N30W.

$$
MT