000
AXNT20 KNHC 290515
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W DIPPING TO S OF THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 20W...AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 
9W-12W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-3S 
BETWEEN 12W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
2N-2S BETWEEN 22W-32W...AND FROM 3S-6S BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 30N85W 21N90W 16N94W MOVING SE. A 
SQUALL LINE IS E OF THE FRONT FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO S 
GEORGIA ALONG 27N85W 32N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH 
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 
21N-22N BETWEEN 86W-87W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER S MEXICO 
ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS ALONG 
22N99W 16N95W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OVER 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 94W TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. ELSEWHERE 
...THE NW GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH 20-25 KT 
NW WINDS. THE SE GULF E OF THE COLD FRONT HAS 15-20 KT S WINDS. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO W OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF AND 
FLORIDA E OF 85W. A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E GULF AND N FLORIDA E OF 87W. 
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PREDOMINATELY OVER 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA.      
     
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW 
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 71W-74W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS 
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ENTRAINING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...N 
VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA E OF 77W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND PANAMA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 
AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER PANAMA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS 
OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA N OF 30N BETWEEN 78W-82W. A 1024 MB 
HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N63W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N35W TO 26N38W 23N41W. A WEAKENING 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S TO 19N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 20N-30N 
TO 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SUPPORTED BY THE CIMSS SAL ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS AN AREA 
OF SAHARAN AFRICAN DUST OVER THE E ATLANTIC S OF 17N AND E OF 
37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 
60W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. 
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 50W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 7N20W. 
EXPECT...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS TO 32N30W 22N40W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE W 
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO ALSO MOVE E AND BE ALONG 32N70W 25N80W IN 
24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.    

$$
FORMOSA