000 AXNT20 KNHC 281735 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N16W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W TO 3S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 2W-13W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-25W AND S OF 4N BETWEEN 38W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE MID GULF FROM SRN ALABAMA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A QSCAT PASS AROUND 1230 Z REVEALED NLY GALE FORCE WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE FAVORED ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 24N. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SLY WINDS ARE MAINLY 20-25 KT. WIND GENERATED WAVES COMBINED WITH NW SWELL IS CAUSING HAZORDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS JUST ABOUT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. PRECIP-WISE...DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW SCATTERED SHOWES AND TSTMS (SOME STRONG) WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY INACTIVE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG IT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING E AND WEAKEN...CLEARING THE ENTIRE ZONE BY SUN EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS E BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG E TO SE TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED NM S OF BERMUDA AND BROAD LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE STRONGEST FLOW...ESTIMATED TO BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. 20-25 KT EXIST ELSEWHERE BASED ON SFC OBS AND A RECENT QSCAT PASS. TYPICAL PATCHES OF SHALLOW CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...MOST ORGANIZED OVER THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SE CARIBBEAN. ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPRESSING THIS MOISTURE ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITHIN AN UPPER RIDGE. TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SUN IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVER THE W ATLC...DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS STILL HOLDING CONTROL WITH THE ASSOCIATED 1023 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED NM S OF BERMUDA. SLY WINDS ARE 20-25 KT W OF 77W DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND E AND INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. SEE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FRONT. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...DEEP LAYER TROUGHING IS SLOWLY WEAKENING BUT REMAINS THE DOMINATE PATTERN. WHILE THE SFC LOWS ARE WELL N OF THE AREA...AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DOES EXTEND INTO SUBTROPICS/TROPICS FROM 32N37W TO 24N42W THEN STATIONARY TO 18N51W TO 11N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. LONG PERIOD NLY SWELL HAS SPREAD INTO THE TROPICS ELEVATING SEAS TO 10-15 FT W OF THE FRONT TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER MID-UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED AND MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS WELL INLAND OVER AFRICA. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS...A LARGE SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 7N25W...ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. $$ CANGIALOSI