000
AXNT20 KNHC 271120
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 
23W THEN ALONG 1S30W 1S40W TO THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 
7W-21W...AND FROM 2S-4S BETWEEN 9W-13W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3S BETWEEN 25W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM S ALABAMA TO SE 
LOUISIANA ALONG 32N85W 29N90W MOVING NE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 29N-36N BETWEEN 
84W-90W. A 997 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 
33N100W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
30N70W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE 
FEATURES ARE PRODUCING 20-30 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO OVER THE N GULF N 
OF 27N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY ZONAL 
FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS N OF 20N. EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO MOVE OUT 
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A STRONG COLD 
FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTEND FROM THE MOUTH OF 
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W IN 24 
HOURS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER W VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE 
MARACAIBO FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 71W-73W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 
64W...HISPANIOLA... JAMAICA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. STRONGER 
30 KT WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR BARBADOS WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER 
THE W CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W. A COLD FRONT 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N47W TO 28N48W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH CONTINUES S TO 25N50W 20N57W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE TROUGH TO 72W...N OF 22N.   
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 
32N44W TO E OF BARBADOS ALONG 28N45W 13N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 28N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 42W-46W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS TROUGH. A 1009 
MB LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N19W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE LOW CENTER. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. A TROUGH 
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 30W-45W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N20W. EXPECT...THE COLD 
FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGHS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
SHOWERS. 

$$
FORMOSA