000 AXNT20 KNHC 261745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N28W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W TO 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2N W OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE E SIDE OF A LONGWAVE MID-UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING A LINE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER FAR SE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SEVERE...REFER TO LOCAL NWS PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION. BEYOND RADAR RANGE...IR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST LITTLE ORGANIZED TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY ZONAL BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC. SLY SFC WINDS ARE STRONG (20-25 KT) ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC AND A FRONT/LOW PRES OVER THE SE CONUS. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE FRI BRINGING NLY GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE FRONT OVER THE SW WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...A MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TOWARD NICARAGUA. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG AND TO THE W OF THE AXIS...ESPECIALLY S OF JAMAICA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...E TO SE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE STEERING A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS BUT OVERALL LITTLE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE REGION. OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...SW FLOW ALOFT ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THIS FLOW IS AS STRONG AS 70 KT NEAR 200 MB. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SHALLOW CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. QSCAT AND SHIP DATA REVEALS STRONG 20-25 KT N-NE WINDS NEAR PUERTO RICO AND OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 15-20 KT FLOW IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. LITTLE LARGE SCALE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE SCALE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 39N56W...ANALYZED 988 MB. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WITH A LARGER SCOPE OF GALE CONDITIONS IN ALL QUADRANTS. WHILE THESE WARNINGS ARE N OF THE DISCUSSION ZONE...THE RESULTING NLY SWELL IS PRODUCING HIGH SEAS OVER THE SW N ATLC. BUOY 44004...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE NW BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA...HAS RECENTLY REPORTED 17 FT COMBINED SEAS. A COUPLE OF ASSOCIATED OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTEND INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN TROUGH LINE LIES FROM 32N45W TO 20N52W TO 13N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 23N WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE TROUGH...WITHIN A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT. A SECONDARY TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N51W TO 26N61W. LITTLE COLD CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON IR IMAGES NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...BUT THERE ARE LIKELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE TROUGH DUE TO THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW. ANOTHER STACKED LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 240 NM NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N21W...ANALYZED 1009 MB. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE DEEP TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY A MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 4N34W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ BUT OTHERWISE ENHANCING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. $$ CANGIALOSI