000 AXNT20 KNHC 261049 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W...2S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-11W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 38W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM A 1006 MB LOW LOCATED OVER SW MISSISSIPPI. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR VERMILION BAY WSW TO INLAND OVER THE SE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON. A DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A STRONG LINE OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSING EWD EXTENDING FROM NRN ALABAMA THROUGH MOBILE BAY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...WHILE THESE STORMS ARE MOSTLY OVER THE SE CONUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN GULF WATERS N OF 28N. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF 20-25 KT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E GULF ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ERN GULF WHILE THE SE GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. CARIBBEAN SEA... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 KT...ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IN THE NE CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA...AND INTO THE E PACIFIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS CREATING A RELATIVELY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN NW OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO PANAMA. E OF THE TROUGH AXIS... STRONG SWLY UPPER WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 40N57W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FIRST OF WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W THEN CONTINUES ALONG 30N46W 26N50W TO 18N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH. WEST OF THE INITIAL BOUNDARY...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N51W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N60W TO 28N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROKEN COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH PRIMARILY E OF 75W. A SECOND 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SPINNING OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 32N21W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURLS IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG 32N18W 29N19W...HOWEVER LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. BETWEEN THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 27W-41W. IN THE TROPICS...DIVERGENCE AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 5N35W IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ HUFFMAN