000 AXNT20 KNHC 260543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-9W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF 20-25 KT COVER THE MIDDLE AND EAST GULF ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NW LOUISIANA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG THE SE TEXAS GULF COAST. A DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A STRONG LINE OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY PROGRESSING EWD EXTENDING FROM NRN MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS. HOWEVER...WHILE THESE STORMS ARE MOSTLY OVER THE SE CONUS...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT N OF 28N. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ERN GULF WHILE THE WRN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. CARIBBEAN SEA... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS...25-30 KT...ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. ALOFT...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA...AND INTO THE E PACIFIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS CREATING A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN NW OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO PANAMA. E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...STRONG SWLY UPPER WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 40N57W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W THEN CONTINUES ALONG 30N46W 25N50W TO 18N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEST OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N53W AND CONTINUES ALONG 30N54W 27N60W TO 28N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FILTERED IN ACROSS THE W ATLC BEHIND THE MAIN COLD FRONT. A SECOND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SPINNING OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 33N21W...HOWEVER LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. BETWEEN THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 27W-42W. IN THE TROPICS... DIVERGENCE AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 4N35W IS ENHANCING THE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ HUFFMAN