000
AXNT20 KNHC 251803
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 
38W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 12W-15W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM
22W-23W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS 
THE GULF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC OFF THE 
FLORIDA COAST IS PROVIDING BRISK SE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. A LINE OF TSTMS E OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SW 
LOUISIANA AND SE TEXAS MAY CLIP THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY.  
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE 
GULF INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FLORIDA KEYS. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THESE ELY TRADES GENERATING 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA 
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE FAR 
NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS RESULTING IN A DRY STABLE 
ATMOSPHERE NW OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO COSTA RICA. E OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS STRONG SWLY UPPER WINDS OF 70-90 ARE TRANSPORTING 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE ERN 
CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL N 
OF THE AREA NEAR 39N58W TO 32N60W TO HISPANIOLA. TWO FRONTS ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...THE FIRST OF IS A DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N47W TO 22N54W 
THEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 16N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
FRONT AND TROUGH FROM 25N-20N. THE SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT 
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N52 23N70W AND CONTINUES NW TO THE 
FLORIDA GEORGIA BORDER. STRONG NLY SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE 
FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N W OF FRONT TO 64W. BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS BEHIND COLD FRONT. A 100-125 KT JETSTREAM WITH AXIS FROM 
20N63W 27N44N THEN SE TO 113N19W. ANOTHER WELL DEFINED UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE E ATLC JUST N OF THE NEAR
34N18N WITH TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 8N
A NARROW RIDGE SEPARATES THE TWO TROUGHS. IN THE DEEP TROPICS
LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 3N34W.

$$
DGS