000 AXNT20 KNHC 251037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 21W-24W AND BETWEEN 30W-34W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 44W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC OFF THE FLORIDA COAST IS PROVIDING BRISK SE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 85W...WITH DOPPLER RADAR INDICATING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE N GULF COAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS NW LOUISIANA AND SE TEXAS ARE OBSERVED AND ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NRN GULF COAST THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS INLAND. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FLORIDA KEYS. OTHERWISE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THESE ELY TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS ERN CUBA AND JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS RESULTING IN A DRY STABLE ATMOSPHERE NW OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO COSTA RICA. E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...STRONG SWLY UPPER WINDS OF 70-90 KT...ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL N OF THE AREA OFF THE NE U.S. COAST NEAR 40N60W TO 32N61W TO ERN CUBA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS...THE FIRST OF WHICH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N47W ALONG 27N50W 21N55W AND CONTINUES SSW AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 15N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N53W AND CONTINUES ALONG 27N60W 25N70W 26N75W TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA NEAR SAVANNAH. STRONG NLY SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SECOND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC. ACROSS THE E ATLC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH AXIS ALONG 35W EXTENDS FROM N OF THE AZORES TO ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED UNDER MAINLY 15-20 KT NE TO E SURFACE FLOW. $$ HUFFMAN