000
AXNT20 KNHC 242323
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 
28W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 17W-19W...AND FROM EQ-1N BETWEEN 20W-24W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER E VIRGINIA IS PRODUCING SE RETURN 
FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF WITH 20-25 KT. A COLD FRONT 
IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING E. THE NW GULF OF MEXICO HAS 
PREFRONTAL MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. MOSTLY 
FAIR SKIS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N...AND W OF 85W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 
EXPECT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE E IN 24 HOURS WITH AXIS 
ALONG 80W. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS INLAND TO THE NORTH. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA 
AND W VENEZUELA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 72W-76W. FRESH TRADEWINDS 
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND 
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...N 
VENEZUELA...PANAMA...AND E HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. IN FACT...A LINE OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA 
TO BEYOND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SE SURFACE FLOW IS ADVECTING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF DAYTONA. SIMILAR CLOUDS 
AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N59W TO 28N64W 27N73W 32N80W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS 
FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N49W TO 23N57W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 40N32W 
32N35W 20N40W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE PLUME OF DRY AIR 
AND AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 30W 
MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
W OF 70W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
BETWEEN 30W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E 
OF 30W. EXPECT...THE FIRST COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N48W IN 24 
HOURS WITH SHOWERS...WHILE THE OTHER COLD FRONT DISSIPATES.  

$$
FORMOSA