000
AXNT20 KNHC 232351
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W 
CONTINUES TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN 36W-39W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 1S-6S 
BETWEEN 40W-44W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING SE-E FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF WITH 25-30 KT. THE E GULF 
E OF 88W...AND N FLORIDA...HAS PATCHES OF BROKEN MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE 
ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. MOSTLY FAIR SKIS ARE 
OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N AND W OF 88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE  E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE N GULF N OF 25N...AND S TEXAS. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT...THE UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE TO MOVE E IN 24 HOURS WITH AXIS ALONG 94W. ALSO EXPECT 
CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER 
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT REACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 
20N62W 18N65W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING E. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA 
FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 69W-77W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 
ESPECIALLY OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...N VENEZUELA...PANAMA 
...AND HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
A LINE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS 
FROM PANAMA TO BEYOND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF COSTA RICA. 
EXPECT AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND 
N COLOMBIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NE SURFACE FLOW IS ADVECTING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF DAYTONA. SIMILAR CLOUDS 
AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N52W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N62W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 40N30W 32N34W 20N40W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY 
ISLANDS. A SURFACE PLUME OF DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE 
E ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 30W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS 
...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 
40W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. 
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E TO 32N48W IN 24 HOURS WITH 
SHOWERS. 

$$
FORMOSA