000
AXNT20 KNHC 231729
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W 
CONTINUES TO 1S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE ERN GULF E 
OF 87W AND IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS BROUGHT IN BY BRISK 
ELY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS SE GULF E OF 85W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA 
KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST SW 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF 
AND HIGH CLOUD OVER THE NW GULF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM WEST 
ATLC TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO BELIZE. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 77W. OTHERWISE A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE 
TAIL END OF A 80 TO 100 KT STREAM JET EXTENDS FROM ERN HONDURAS 
NE ACROSS JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 360 NM SE OF THE 
JET. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 80W AND ALONG 
THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC...MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE TROUGH N OF 24N OF 66W. A 100-120 KT 
JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 24N60W SE TO 18N39N WHERE 
WINDS DECREASE TO 90-95W...THEN CONTINUE TO 7N25W. HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS S OF THE JET AXIS, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM 32N54W TO 21N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF 
THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N40W 
TO 20N48W, A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE.

$$
DGS