000
AXNT20 KNHC 230543
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 25W...TO 1S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 2W-7W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE ERN GULF 
E OF 90W AND IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON 15-20 
KT E-NE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE ERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SE 
GULF E OF 85W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS IN THE SE GULF N OF THE NWRN CUBA 
COAST NEAR 23N84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A RIDGE OF 
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ON A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NORTH 
CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N74W. MOSTLY ELY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE 
OBSERVED ACROSS THE E GULF WHILE SE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE ACROSS 
THE WRN GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO THE W ATLC AND PROVIDE THE 
WRN AND CENTRAL GULF WITH SLY RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED WINDS 
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER 
THE SRN PLAINS.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A COLD 
FRONT OVER THE W ATLC AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE U.S. 
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 17N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WHILE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF ELY 
TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 17N BETWEEN 67W-78W. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS WITH THE 
STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL WRN ATLC IS PROVIDING 
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SW UPPER FLOW AS THE TAIL END OF A 80 
TO 100 KT STREAM JET EXTENDS FROM ERN HONDURAS NE ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN...CONVERGENT NE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS 
GENERATING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND 
WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF WRN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 
11N W OF 80W. SIMILAR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING 
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND INLAND ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W AND EXTENDS 
ALONG 30N57W 26N60W 20N64W AND INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. THIS 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
FOUND E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N. TO THE W OF THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE W ATLC...A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N74W AND IS PROVIDING THE W 
ATLC WITH NE TO ELY SURFACE FLOW USHERING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE ERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TO 
THE E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL AND E ATLC... 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF THE AZORES TO 
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED 
UNDER MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT NE TO E FLOW.

$$
HUFFMAN