000 AXNT20 KNHC 220548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W...TO 1S30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 41W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W INTO THE W ATLC WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OBSERVED MAINLY OVER THE SRN GULF S OF 25N. AS OF 0300 UTC... THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS TO NEAR KEY WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME SRN FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG NE SURFACE FLOW. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS N OF 23N BETWEEN 86W-94W...BUT OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST WITH LIGHT 10-15 KT E-SE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF W OF 88W. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ERN CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE BRAZIL THROUGH 10N60W TO OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THEY FEED INTO A 80 TO 100 KT JET STREAM WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE EXTENDING FROM S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N76W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ERN AND SW CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. TYPICAL CONVERGENT NE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF WRN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 12N W OF 80W. SIMILAR EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO INLAND OVER WRN HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND ERN GUATEMALA W OF 85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO NEAR PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND...INCLUDING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 50 NM. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING IS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC W OF 60W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N62W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 27N70W WEAKENING TO A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE BOUNDARY IS GENERATING LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS EXTREME SRN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS N OF 23N AND W OF 76W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC...A 1014 MB LOW IS NEAR 28N63W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 25N65W THEN SW OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 32N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 22N. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N57W THEN CONTINUES NE TO BEYOND 32N45W. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS WITHIN 200 NM OF A LINE FROM THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 21N55W. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-40W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N34W EXTENDING SW TO 25N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OBSERVED UNDER 10-20 KT NE TO ELY FLOW. $$ HUFFMAN