000 AXNT20 KNHC 191742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N7W 1N16W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W EXTENDING TO 1S39W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 6W AND 24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 24N80W TO 24N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER WITHIN 30 NM N OF THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N89W TO 28N89W DRIFTING W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF N OF 25N. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE W GULF AS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. 10-15 KT NE TO E WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF...DECREASING TO 5-10 KT CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES AND ARE IN THE 70'S S OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL PUSH E INTO THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SLOWLY WEAKENS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE FRONT AND TROUGH WHILE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND QSCAT FROM 1130Z INDICATE WINDS UP TO 25 KT IN ALONG THE COAST OF NRN COLOMBIA. WINDS IN THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE...AS SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...A FEW PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENT SURFACE WIND FLOW HAVE CREATED A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE N OF CUBA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N45W SW ALONG 26N52W TO 24N60W...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 24N WHILE EXTENDING E THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. QSCAT FROM 0950Z INDICATES GALES ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND STRONGER WINDS FURTHER N. THE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRI...AS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY N OF THE FRONT TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W SLOWLY DIMINISHES. A 1025 MB HIGH IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED NEAR 35N65W...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 30N63W TO 26N58W...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N17W SE TO 26N22W TO 24N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT... AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N E OF FLORIDA...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 2N38W. AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR 30N50W WILL MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE JUST E OF FLORIDA MOVES E WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. $$ KELLS/HUFFMAN