000
AXNT20 KNHC 180559
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N19W 1N31W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 36W EXTENDING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 4N BETWEEN 11W-14W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 19W-26W AND S OF 3N 
BETWEEN 29W-33W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AT 
25N80W TO A 1017 MB LOW OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N86W AND 
CONTINUES SW TO 23N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AND 
SOUTH FLORIDA AND ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT OVER THE E 
GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W 
WHILE MOSTLY FAIR SHIES ARE OVER THE W GULF. 10-15 KT NE WINDS 
ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 KT SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. 
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S AND 60'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES 
AND ARE IN THE 70'S S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL 
FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE 
FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH SHOWERS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONGEST WINDS 
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLUMBIA WITH 25-30 KT. PATCHES OF 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...N 
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA...AND NW VENEZUELA NEAR 
LAKE MARACAIBO...FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 71W-74W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. 
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG 
32N65W 28N70W 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N56W 
MOVING E. FURTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N33W 29N40W 28N50W 32N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1008 MB LOW IS W OF 
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N 
OF 20N FROM FLORIDA TO WEST AFRICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 5N25W. A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO TRINIDAD. EXPECT...THE COLD 
FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO 32N53W WITH SHOWERS IN 24 
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO 
LIKEWISE MOVE E TO 32N22W WITH SHOWERS.     

$$
FORMOSA