000
AXNT20 KNHC 170528
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 29W EXTENDING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S38W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
LIBERIA FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 7W-10W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 17W-20W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL 
FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 38W-42W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 29N81W 
TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT 23N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S 
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM N OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF 
OF MEXICO. A SMALL PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. MOSTLY 10-15 KT NE 
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 KT SE WINDS ARE S OF THE 
FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S N OF THE FRONT AND ARE IN 
THE 70'S S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER 
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W...THUS SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS 
PREVAIL. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER N FLORIDA. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE UPPER 
LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO 
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONGEST 
WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLUMBIA WITH 25-30 KT. PATCHES 
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA 
ESPECIALLY N OF 16N TO INCLUDE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO 
RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...N NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1018 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 32N79W. A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH 
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N69W MOVING E. A 1006 MB LOW IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N26W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM 
THE LOW TO 28N20W 22N21W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE 
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 
60W-30W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR 34N23W.  
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 5N28W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 
TRINIDAD. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE N OF THE AREA TO 
34N17W WITH SHOWERS IN 24 HOURS.  

$$
FORMOSA