000 AXNT20 KNHC 102317 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 24W TO 1S40W AND INTO BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 2W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 11W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 17W-22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-7S BETWEEN 22W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER BRAZIL FROM EQ-6S BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A PAIR OF 1023 MB HIGHS ARE LOCATED OVER S ALABAMA AND NRN BAHAMAS. THEY ARE PRODUCING 10-15 KT SOUTH EASTERLY WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60'S TO THE UPPER 70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST IN 24 HRS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 30 KT WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLUMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG E-NE FLOW. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR A PATCH OF MOISTURE N OF VENEZUELA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N57W AND EXTENDS W ALONG 29N60W 29N70W 32N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 50W-56W. A 1001 MB LOW IS OVER THE ERN ATLC AT 31N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 27N36W 22N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 33W-35W. A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN ATLC FROM 27N30W 10N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 6O NM OF THE AXIS. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 43N13W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 14N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTH EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR 34N55W. ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20 FROM 45W TO THE W COAST OF AFRICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 8N10W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO VENEZUELA ALONG 10N. EXPECT...GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HRS NEAR 29N58W. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE WITH AN ATTENDANT LOW NEAR 30N48W IN 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA/WALTON