000 AXNT20 KNHC 031716 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W EXTENDING TO 2S35W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 9W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 1N BETWEEN 41W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...WHERE DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS IN PLACE. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE CONUS. AS A RESULT...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF WATERS IN THE WAKE OF FRONTS OVER THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. HOWEVER...STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS HIGHER IN THE ATMOSPHERE ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF REGION. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE N GULF...WHERE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM E COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W TO 16N79W AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 16N79W TO SW HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONTS. OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO THE W OF THE FRONTS...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION...WHERE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS. THE FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE EXTREME NE CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND A RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS IS S OF 14N BETWEEN 62W-65W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM N HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO 27N67W TO 32N65W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO THE W OF THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS PRESENT...WHERE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. FARTHER TO THE E...A 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N46W WITH A SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 29N48W TO 30N42W...A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N42W TO 24N43W TO 22N50W...AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N42W TO 26N37W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTS IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 37W-44W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 44W-49W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 04/1200 UTC. ACROSS THE E ATLC...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 10N E OF 56W. $$ COHEN