000
AXNT20 KNHC 031148
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM NORTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
24W...TO 2S30W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5S40W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 5N EAST
OF 45W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5S BETWEEN 20W AND BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS SPINNING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO 
SOUTH FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W. THIS TROUGH IS POWERING THE
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS ALONG A LINE FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THROUGH 32N66W TO 22N70W TO THE TURKS ISLANDS...ACROSS
HAITI TO JUST EAST OF JAMAICA TO 15N80W...CURVING TO THE
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO 24N69W 29N66W BEYOND 
32N64W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN
70W AND 77W...STILL TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.
A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS...ACROSS HAITI
TO JUST EAST OF JAMAICA TO 15N80W...CURVING TO THE NICARAGUA/
COSTA RICA BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 70W
AND 77W...STILL TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEP LAYER 
CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS INTO A SEPARATE AREA OF BROAD LARGE SCALE 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS MOVING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO SOUTHERN COASTAL  
HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF 70W. BROAD
LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD
MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING AROUND TWO CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN 
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. ONE 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 
30N45W...CONNECTED TO A SECOND 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 
30N42W BY AN OCCLUDED FRONT. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N42W
TO 26N37W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 30N45W LOW CENTER TO 27N43W 
AND 25N50W AND 29N59W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 32N
BETWEEN 38W AND 44W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT NOW RUNS FROM 
MOROCCO/ALGERIA/MAURITANIA TO THE WESTERN SAHARA AND STOPS NEAR 
20N30W WAS CONNECTED TO THE WARM FRONT 12 HOURS AGO.

$$
MT