000
AXNT20 KNHC 022350
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 5N10W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W TO 
3S30W AND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 5S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 19W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO THE W AFRICA COAST 
BETWEEN 3W-7W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 
SWD INTO THE WRN GULF AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS OF 
2100 UTC...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO 
MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. 10-15 KT NLY FLOW AND BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF S OF 27N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS FLORIDA 
AND THE NRN GULF COAST...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATE THIS 
EVENING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING 
THE GULF REGION WITH AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
AND FLORIDA STRAITS. NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PROVIDING 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OBSERVED.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WRN CUBA 
AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N80W 
AND INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL NICARAGUA COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS ERN CUBA AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
INLAND TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. NLY WINDS OF UP TO 20-25 KT 
ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE 
AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE. UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM NRN SOUTH AMERICA 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
RESULTING OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN S OF 16N...WHILE BEING USHERED 
WWD ON MODERATE TRADEWINDS LOCATED E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR W ATLC AND 
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W AND EXTENDS S TO NEAR MAYAGUANA 
ISLAND IN THE SE BAHAMAS THEN INTO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N OVER THE W ATLC. 
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE 
FRONT TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ERN U.S. COASTLINE. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL AND NE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA WITH 
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N42W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE 
SUPPORTS A 1020 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N42W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 23N46W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 
36W-42W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER 
THE ERN ATLC ALONG 32N8W 24N20W 25N30W TO 30N36W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL ATLC...A RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 7N IS E OF 60W TO THE W 
AFRICA COAST.   

$$
HUFFMAN