000
AXNT20 KNHC 021757
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON MAR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 6N10W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W TO 
3S30W TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 12W-13W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 18W-23W...AND FROM 
1S-4S BETWEEN 23W-29W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 33N94W. A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS S TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. 10-15 KT 
NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS PRODUCING BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 
29N. FLORIDA ...THE NORTH GULF STATES...AND MEXICO W OF 
97W...HAVE FAIR SKIES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 28N WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS ALONG 21N76W 
15N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1009 
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 75W-77W. MODERATE 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W... AND ALONG THE 
COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 
75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER THE 
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WITH SHOWERS.    

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N71W 26N73W 21N76W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 69W-72W. A 
1020 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N43W. A TROUGH 
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 26N44W 23N46W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N10W 26N20W 26N30W 30N35W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 50W-70W. ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 10N E OF 50W 
TO W AFRICA. A RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICS WITH AXIS ALONG 5N FROM 
10W-50W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AND EXTEND FROM 32N64W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.    

$$
FORMOSA