000 AXNT20 KNHC 012347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA TO 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W...TO 2S30W 2S38W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 4N EAST OF 36W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SPINNING THROUGH THE SE CONUS...FLORIDA AND MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH FREEPORT BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W ACROSS WRN CUBA TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR COZUMEL. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE SW GULF. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MAINLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE WRN GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS WRN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS AND A RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARE OBSERVED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW DOMINATES WITH INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES WHERE POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM DOMINICA TO NE VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N78W AND EXTENDS S-SW THROUGH FREEPORT BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND CURVES ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N61W. BROAD AND WEAK RESIDUAL MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALONG 29N BETWEEN 43W-60W AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 30N BETWEEN 21W-45W AND SW TO 26N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 26N53W TO 20N57W. THIS TROUGH RELATED TO THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 19W-45W. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NW OF THE FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO CROOKED ISLAND IN THE SW BAHAMAS. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N34W EXTENDS A RIDGE SWD TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC. $$ HUFFMAN