000
AXNT20 KNHC 011726
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA TO 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
24W...TO 1S30W 2S38W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S44W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 5N EAST 
OF 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS SPINNING THROUGH ALABAMA...GEORGIA...
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH
IS POWERING THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING ALONG A LINE 
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FRONT IS BROKEN 
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES IN INTERIOR MEXICO
FROM THE ISTHMUS NORTHWESTWARD TO 31N109W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
BLOWING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER AND IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN
CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST EAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT 
RUNS INTO LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT STARTS 
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD LARGE SCALE LOW 
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVES UNDER THE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SOME DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY
IS MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA/GEORGIA/FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS SPILLING INTO THE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS THE 
BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA...AND CURVES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEASTWARD 
BEYOND 25N38W. BROAD AND WEAK RESIDUAL MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC 
FLOW IS ALONG A TROUGH 21N69W 26N60W 28N56W TO 32N46W. THIS 
TROUGH STILL IS RELATED TO THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG
31N27W 31N40W 29N50W 27N54W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N54W TO
21N60W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 52W.
A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT/TROUGH PASSES 
THROUGH 32N62W BERMUDA TO 28N66W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W
TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH. 

$$
MT