000 AXNT20 KNHC 011118 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W EXTENDING TO 2S36W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 12W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 2N BETWEEN 19W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF 1N BETWEEN 31W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF REGION. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W TO 24N90W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF...WITH A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SW...MIDDLE...AND E GULF. ALSO...RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO THE N OF THE FRONT...WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NW GULF WHERE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE E OF THE GULF REGION TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY... STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BLOW THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION BEGINNING AT 01/1200 UTC AND STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION BEGINNING AT 02/0600 UTC. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION...WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY CONFLUENCE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ALSO...INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY...WITH RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SE CONUS...AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS MORNING. RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER TO THE E...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N59W TO 25N56W TO 28N53W...A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N53W TO 30N43W TO 31N27W...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N27W TO 32N21W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE NE QUADRANT OF A 110-120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE FRONTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE NEXT DAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N42W AT 02/0600 UTC. ALSO...ACROSS LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC THAT ARE SE OF THE SURFACE FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N35W. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE DISSIPATED BY 02/0600 UTC. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 12N E OF 49W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 2N21W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. $$ COHEN