000
AXNT20 KNHC 010000
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 16W...
TO 1S20W 1S30W 1S38W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 5N EAST 
OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT HAS ARRIVED. THE COLD FRONT IS ALONG 
A LINE THAT CUTS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 23.5N...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO 30N109W. A TROUGH
IS WITHIN 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 25N TO 29N. THIS
FRONT IS BEING DRIVEN BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS
MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF TEXAS...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS FROM 27N 
TO 28N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W...AND OVER LAND FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT 
RUNS INTO LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT STARTS 
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD LARGE SCALE LOW 
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVES UNDER THE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND CURVES ACROSS
THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 26N46W. BROAD AND WEAK
RESIDUAL MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W 
AND 80W. A CENTRAL-TO-SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W 
TO 31N36W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N36W TO 30N48W
TO 27N58W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N58W TO 22N63W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 24N58W 28N52W
BEYOND 32N45W. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT/
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 29N72W INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDS THROUGH
MAURITANIA TO 19N14W TO 16N22W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N34W...FROM 10N
TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE STATIONARY FRONT/TROUGH.

$$
MT