000 AXNT20 KNHC 280734 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009 ...CORRECTED ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N13W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W EXTENDING TO 1S34W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 8W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 1N BETWEEN 19W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...WHERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ATMOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W GULF...S TO SW SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE PRESENT AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. HOWEVER... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE N AND CENTRAL GULF. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE CONUS...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PRESENT. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND EXTEND FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT... INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE GULF...WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE W GULF. ALSO... RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO THE N OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION...WHERE CONFLUENCE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS IS FROM 12N-17N E OF 64W. ALSO...INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N64W TO 29N53W TO 32N42W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. TO THE W OF THIS FRONT...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE RIDGE. ALSO...ACROSS LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC THAT ARE SE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N40W. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR 28N31W AS A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH AT 01/0000 UTC. FARTHER TO THE E...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE E ATLC N OF 16N E OF 24W. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 10W-16W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1017 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N18W. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO HAVE DISSIPATED BY 01/0000 UTC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 16W-20W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 10N E OF 57W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 49W-52W. $$ COHEN