000 AXNT20 KNHC 272356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 16W... TO 2S25W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S49W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 5N EAST OF 52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THIS AREA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO. THIS MEANS THAT WESTERLY-TO- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. HIGH CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 26N MOVING EASTWARD. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AT THE UPPER LEVELS IS EVERYWHERE ELSE. ONE PART OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ANOTHER PART OF A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THIS AREA WILL NOT ARRIVE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS AFTER THAT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT RUNS INTO LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW WHICH STARTS FROM EL SALVADOR AND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ISLANDS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. PART OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT IS REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA EVENTUALLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STILL-EVIDENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD/STATIONARY FRONT. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE TURKS ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL-TO-SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N40W TO 30N49W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N49W TO 26N66W AND CURVING TO HAITI NEAR 19N73W. BEYOND 25N66W 28N60W 32N54W ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 25N66W 28N60W BEYOND 32N54W. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N73W TO NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT IS AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N34W TO 24N48W TO 17N60W. A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDS FROM A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N11W TO 24N15W TO 14N26W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N18W TO 25N20W TO 25N24W. THIS IS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. $$ MT