000 AXNT20 KNHC 271114 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N5W 2N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W EXTENDING TO 4S28W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 6S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 13W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 1N BETWEEN 21W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF 1N BETWEEN 37W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...WHERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ATMOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N78W. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W GULF...SE TO S SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE PRESENT AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE N AND CENTRAL GULF. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE CONUS...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PRESENT AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT. THIS SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO SATURDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE GULF...WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF. ALSO...RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO THE N OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SE OF CUBA NEAR 20N75W NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE W NORTH ATLC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION...WHERE CONFLUENCE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 65W-74W. ALSO...INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SE OF CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO 26N64W TO 32N46W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. TO THE W OF THIS FRONT...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N78W. ALSO...ACROSS LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC THAT ARE SE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE E ATLC N OF 24N E OF 21W WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW NEAR 33N14W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND UPPER LOW ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N23W TO 25N17W TO A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N18W. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO HAVE DISSIPATED BY 28/0600 UTC. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND UPPER LOW ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N17W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N15W TO 30N15W TO A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N18W. THE 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N18W IS FORECAST TO HAVE DISSIPATED BY 28/0600 UTC. ADDITIONALLY...THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND UPPER LOW ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW MOROCCO NEAR 28N11W TO W MOROCCO NEAR 32N10W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOWS AND SURFACE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N E OF 21W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 9N E OF 58W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 6N BETWEEN 42W-51W. $$ COHEN