000 AXNT20 KNHC 270559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N11W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 14W EXTENDING TO 3S29W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 3W-9W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 4N BETWEEN 13W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 1N BETWEEN 37W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...WHERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ATMOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W GULF...SE TO S SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE PRESENT AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. HOWEVER... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE N AND CENTRAL GULF. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE CONUS...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PRESENT AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NW GULF SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND THEN EXTEND FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT... INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE GULF...WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF. ALSO...RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO THE N OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM W OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N74W NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE W NORTH ATLC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION...WHERE CONFLUENCE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 63W-71W. ALSO...INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE S AND E CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM W OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N74W TO 26N63W TO 32N50W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. TO THE W OF THIS FRONT...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE RIDGE. ALSO...ACROSS LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC THAT ARE SE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE E ATLC N OF 23N E OF 24W WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW NEAR 33N16W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND UPPER LOW ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N19W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N23W TO 23N20W TO 26N18W TO 27N19W TO 26N20W. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO HAVE DISSIPATED BY 28/0000 UTC. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND UPPER LOW ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N15W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N15W TO 31N16W TO A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N18W TO 30N20W. THE 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N18W IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR 35N10W AS A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW AT 28/0000 UTC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOWS AND SURFACE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N E OF 21W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 8N E OF 54W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 44W-51W AND S OF 1N BETWEEN 45W-49W. $$ COHEN