000
AXNT20 KNHC 261721
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 
16W TO 4S25W 1S40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 
8W-12W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-6S 
BETWEEN 21W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 43W-52W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 41N57W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
AXIS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PRODUCING 15-20 KT RETURN 
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF 
EXCEPT OVER S TEXAS AND THE NW GULF WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS NOTED. EXPECT...SOME SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF WITHIN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER E CUBA E OF 77W. FRESH TRADES 
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. ONSHORE FLOW IS PRODUCING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. 
RIDGING IS PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 
70W. BANDS OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A 
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N47W 28N56W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 25N67W 
20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. A WEAK 
1009 LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N21W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW IS FURTHER NE 
NEAR 32N15W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE LOW. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 
50W-70W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. A DEEP LAYERED LOW 
IS CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N19W. ZONAL FLOW IS 
OVER THE TROPICS S OF 20N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO WEST 
AFRICA. EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO REMAIN 
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     

$$
FORMOSA