000 AXNT20 KNHC 261117 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU FEB 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N4W 2N12W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W EXTENDING TO 3S29W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 5W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 4N BETWEEN 35W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...WHERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ATMOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THE SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 38N71W. ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF... SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE PRESENT AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE N AND CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N75W NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE W NORTH ATLC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION...WHERE CONFLUENCE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 70W-77W. ALSO...INCREASED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO 24N67W TO 27N59W AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N59W TO 29N54W TO 32N48W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. TO THE W OF THIS FRONT...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 38N71W. ALSO...ACROSS LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC THAT ARE SE OF THE STATIONARY AND COLD FRONTS...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE E ATLC N OF 22N E OF 26W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 33N18W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND UPPER LOW ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N21W...A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 20N22W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N16W TO 31N16W...AND A SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N16W TO 32N19W TO 30N23W TO 28N22W. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR 26N17W AS A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW AT 27/0600 UTC. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND UPPER LOW ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 26N15W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N14W TO 32N12W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR 32N17W AS A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW AT 27/0600 UTC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOWS...SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT...SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT...AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N E OF 25W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 8N E OF 54W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 5N BETWEEN 46W-54W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 1W-3W. $$ COHEN