000
AXNT20 KNHC 260535
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 18W EXTENDING TO 4S29W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 4N BETWEEN 6W-15W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 4N BETWEEN 37W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF 
REGION...WHERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING 
ATMOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THE 
SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE 
GULF...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH 
OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 37N73W. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W GULF...SE 
TO S SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE PRESENT AROUND THE SURFACE 
RIDGE. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
GULF REGION. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING 
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE 
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N74W 
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE W NORTH ATLC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS 
FRONT. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION...WHERE CONFLUENCE IN WESTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT IS PRESENT. TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVER MUCH 
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH SUNDAY. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
BY THE TRADE WINDS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION 
OF THESE SHOWERS IS FROM 12N-16N E OF 68W. ALSO...INCREASED 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS 
OF THE SE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N74W TO 
26N63W TO 28N58W AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 
28N58W TO 30N55W TO 32N51W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. TO THE W OF THIS FRONT...FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE 
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE 
RIDGE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1032 MB 
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 37N73W. ALSO...ACROSS 
LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC THAT ARE SE OF THE 
STATIONARY AND COLD FRONTS...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 
SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE E ATLC N OF 22N E OF 27W 
WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N18W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND UPPER 
LOW ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N21W...A 
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 20N22W TO THE CANARY 
ISLANDS NEAR 28N16W TO 30N16W...A SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT 
EXTENDING FROM 30N16W TO 32N18W TO 32N22W TO 30N23W...AND A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM S MOROCCO NEAR 29N11W TO W MOROCCO 
NEAR 31N9W. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD 
DURING THE NEXT DAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR 26N17W AS A 1012 MB 
SURFACE LOW AT 27/0000 UTC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND 
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE 
LOW...SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT...SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT...AND 
SURFACE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 
26W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 7N 
E OF 48W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ITCZ. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 2W-5W.

$$
COHEN