000
AXNT20 KNHC 252342
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 25/2300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA TO 5N13W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 19W...TO 2N26W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AGAIN
ALONG 39W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S54W. ISOLATED AND
DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THIS AREA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY 
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH CLOUDS IN TEXAS SOUTH OF 
32N EAST OF 100W ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST 
WATERS EAST OF TEXAS AND SOUTH OF LOUISIANA. DRY AIR IN 
SUBSIDENCE AT THE UPPER LEVELS IS EVERYWHERE ELSE. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THIS AREA
IS NOT UNTIL AT LEAST FROM 48 HOURS TO 72 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
ENTIRE AREA. BROAD LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE 
LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES
ON TOP OF THE CAICOS ISLANDS TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
WEAK INVERTED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 100 NM TO THE 
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS DRIVING THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN FRONT REACHES CUBA FROM THE BAHAMAS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL-TO-SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS 
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 28N60W TO
25N66W...BECOMING STATIONARY AND CONTINUING FROM 25N66W...ACROSS
THE CAICOS ISLANDS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N75W IN CUBA
TO 23N70W 25N63W 28N59W BEYOND 32N53W. BROAD SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE HAS BUILT ITS WAY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST 
OF THE FRONT. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A 32N40W 
26N47W 16N49W RIDGE. A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDS 
FROM A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N19W TO 24N22W 
TO 21N29W TO 19N41W TO 10N45W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N20W TO 29N16W. A COLD 
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N16W THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N17W 
TO 18N21W. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N20W. SHOWERS 
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 10W AND 25W. 
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE IS 
BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS.

$$
MT