000
AXNT20 KNHC 250949 CCA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 25 2009

...CORRECTED GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTIONS...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 1N17W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 21W EXTENDING TO 2S33W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 5N BETWEEN 
11W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 1N BETWEEN 
22W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 3N BETWEEN 
34W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF 
REGION...WHERE CONFLUENCE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING 
ATMOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. DEEP 
LAYER DRY AIR IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. 
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO 
PORTIONS OF THE N GULF. THE SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED 
IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF THAT EXTENDS 
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA 
NEAR 35N78W. ACROSS THE NW GULF...SE TO S SURFACE WINDS ARE 
PRESENT AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD 
FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N76W TO E CUBA 
NEAR 20N75W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. TRADE WINDS 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. 
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE CARIBBEAN REGION...WHERE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
PRESENT TO THE SE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND 
NW CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE 
ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BY THE TRADE WINDS...WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS IS FROM 
12N-15N E OF 71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE 
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO 27N63W TO 
32N55W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE THIS 
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS DISSIPATING W OF 72W. TO THE W OF THIS 
FRONT...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT...WHERE SUBSIDENCE 
AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY 
OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD 
FROM A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N78W. 
ALSO...ACROSS LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC THAT ARE SE OF 
THE COLD FRONT...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IS 
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE E ATLC N OF 21N E OF 29W WITH AN 
UPPER LOW NEAR 30N20W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND UPPER LOW ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS 
FROM 21N33W TO 24N22W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW W OF THE CANARY 
ISLANDS NEAR 29N21W. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY. ALSO...A 1010 MB SURFACE 
LOW IS PRESENT NEAR 32N17W. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY AND MERGE WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED 1010 MB SURFACE LOW W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 
29N21W...RESULTING IN A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N21W AT 
26/0000 UTC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOWS AND DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD 
FRONT ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 16W-25W. 
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE IS S OF 9N E OF 47W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

$$
COHEN