000
AXNT20 KNHC 250004
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 2215 UTC WEST OF 50W...AND METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY
THROUGH 2330 UTC EAST OF 50W.

...ITCZ...

FROM 5N9W AT THE LIBERIA COAST TO 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 22W...2S30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W...AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 2N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE 
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH 
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA AROUND A RIDGE
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
AREA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AT THE UPPER LEVELS IS SOUTH
OF 27N. THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 27N. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LAST COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND NOW DISSIPATING
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/
EASTERN HONDURAS TO EASTERN CUBA. BROAD LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS 
ALONG A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN-TO-CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO CUBA WEST
OF 80W...TO 19N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS 
CYCLONIC FLOW IS DUE TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN 
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT BARELY REACHES INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH IS DRIVING THE 
CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHERN BAHAMAS-TO 21N77W CUBA COLD 
FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 26N66W
TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 32N
BETWEEN 58W AND 70W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS AROUND A RIDGE THROUGH 32N41W TO 27N48W TO 24N58W TO
22N66W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM 
OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N24W. A TROUGH CONTINUES 
FROM THE 28N24W CENTER TO 20N30W. A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
20N30W TO 19N40W 15N48W TO 6N62W IN EASTERN VENEZUELA. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N28W
TO 30N21W TO 25N23W AND 23N30W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 34N BETWEEN 18W AND 28W.

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