000
AXNT20 KNHC 222346
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 04N08W 00N23W 00N34W INTO NE BRAZIL AT 02S42W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2S-1N E OF 
13W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF 
AXIS W OF 29W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 38W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTEND FROM SW 
LOUISIANA TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  SW JET CORE 95 KT CUTS 
ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS AND INTO WRN 
CUBA AND S FLORIDA ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO 
AREA JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT RACING ACROSS BASIN.  VERY DRY AIR 
MASS W OF TROUGH AXIS.

COLD FRONT FROM 30N83W TO 24N90W TO 19N93W RACES ACROSS GULF 
SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO 
BRING BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 120 NM E OF 
BOUNDARY.  COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA 
OUT OF GULF EARLY MON LEAVING FAIR SKIES IN GULF FOR NEXT 48 
HRS...EXCEPT BROKEN CLOUDS S OF 21N IN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  VERY 
STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT PROMPTED GALE FORCE WIND 
WARNING S OF 24N W OF 96W THROUGH TONIGHT.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA- 
COLOMBIA BORDER HAS RIDGE AXIS EXTEND NE ACROSS ERN CARIBBEAN TO 
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER 
RIDGE UMBRELLA MAINTAINS ENTIRE CARIBBEAN VERY DRY...EXCEPT 
MINOR UPPER DEBRIS FROM 14N-16N W OF 81W.  

TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND 1008 MB 
LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA-PANAMA BORDER PRODUCING STRONG 
TRADEWINDS ACROSS CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA PROMPTING 
GALE FORCE WARNING ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA TILL MID DAY MON.
STRONG TRADES ALSO SEEP THROUGH GAPS IN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO E 
PAC IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.     

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGE COVER WRN ATLANTIC W OF 50W
WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS E OF 70W AND A 95 KT JET CORE ADVECTING 
TROPICAL MOISTURE W OF 70W AHEAD OF GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT 
APPROACHING SW N ATLC BY MON.  LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTEND 
OVER ERN ATLC FROM 32N18W TO 10N45W TO GUYANA NEAR 07N58W.  
TROUGH AXIS EXTEND DRY AIR MASS OVER ATLC EVEN FURTHER EASTWARD 
W OF AXIS...AND KEEPS ITCZ WELL S OF TROPICAL POSITION.    

WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT JUST ALONG 30N HAS TAIL END MOVING N 
AS WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE OUT OF AREA TONIGHT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 31N FROM 60W-68W.  COLD FRONT 
ENTERS SW N ATLC FROM GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND REACHES FROM 
32N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE MON WITH ASSOCIATED WEATHER AS ABOVE 
DESCRIBED. 

$$
WALLY BARNES